HOW MUCH MORE CAN IT SAFELY YIELD?

       DESPITE cautious signs of a recovery in recent months, the economic crisis continues. Trade, employment and manufacturing data all point to a shrinking international economy, and 2009 growth is likely to remain lower than in recent years. This is bad news for the 60 million people that live in the Mekong Basin, but maybe not as bad as first expected. Nor is it perhaps so prominent in the minds of the poorer sections of the community compared with other development challenges facing them.
       Internationally, commodity prices have dropped, leading to reduced output from the region's mining concessions, and lower foreign exchange earnings. Some people have had to return to rural livelihoods.
       But for the many poor people who depend on the abundant resources of the Mekong River, their source of protein and livelihoods from fisheries and other aquatic resources have not been affected by the economic downturn. The Basin is home to fisheries that yield about 2.5 million tons of fish per year and, at first point of sale, amount to an industry worth at least US$2 billion annually. It is the largest inland fishery in the world.
       These communities depend on the river as a resource, and are often outside the mainstream economy. They are insulated from global economic fluctuations precisely because they depend so closely on natural systems and not the broader economy for their survival. This is the strength of the natural river system; especially the biodiversity and productivity of the wetlands, marshes, swamps, ponds, lakes and flood plains, and it underlines why the river system is so important for poverty alleviation.
       Much can be gained economically by Basin governments in the Lower Mekong. Besides fisheries, hydropower is a renewable energy source and has the potential to generate large amounts of revenue for governments to use in social development programmes; the Mekong agricultural industry is worth billions and there is much potential for increasing water storage and irrigation systems; and the Mekong and its tributaries are vital links for transport and commerce in the region.
       However, there are also challenges associated with population growth and climate change. Similarly, if basic livelihoods are to continue to be met by water resources of the Basin, future developments need to be planned carefully. The rural poor should naturally also benefit in the long-term from economic growth underpinned by any larger-scale development of water resources. But this can be achieved only through strategies that make use of targeted benefit- sharing mechanisms.
       What is needed is an integrated analytical approach that examines the distribution of benefits, costs and the effects of development on the river system. What, for example, would be the economic and social benefits of a hydropower scheme, compared to the value of a potential reduction in fisheries that it could cause? And how to reconcile the gains to one group and the losses to another? How will salinity intrusion and agriculture downstream be affected if water is used for irrigation upstream? Because the river system is trans-boundary, all of these issues have international implications and need to be resolved through the framework of regional cooperation.
       Answers to these questions are not straightforward, but a pragmatic and internationally accepted way of considering them is found in the 1995 Mekong Agreement, which Cambodia, the Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam signed when they established the Mekong River Commission (MRC).
       The MRC is the intergovernmental body responsible for cooperation on the sustainable management of the Mekong Basin, whose members include Cambodia, the Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam. In dealing with these challenges, it looks across all sectors including sustaining fisheries, identifying opportunities for agriculture, maintaining the freedom of navigation, assessing the sustainability of hydropower, flood management and preserving ecosystems. Superimposed on these are the future effects of more extreme floods, prolonged drought and sea level rise associated with climate change. In providing its advice, the MRC aims to facilitate a broad range of dialogue among governments, the private sector and civil society on these challenges.
       The MRC is working with its member governments and upstream partners, China and Burma, to ensure these factors are taken into account when planning water-based development in the region. In doing so, the MRC is committed to meaningful stakeholder participation to ensure that water resource management helps to reduce poverty. Involving stakeholders provides a communication channel for the needs and interests of member states and their people to be reflected in decisions that affect them.
       This requires engagement throughout planning and decision-making processes, and involvement in setting objectives and development paths to meet them. Such a level of engagement depends on transparency, and creating trust and confidence. This is about more than meetings. It is about building a strong sense of ownership. That is why, this week, community representatives, researchers, civil society organisations, government agencies, the private sector and financing institutions will be meeting in Chiang Rai to discuss the various development scenarios for the water resources of the Mekong Basin.
       This builds on efforts to consult with communities that have in the past included community surveys and questionnaires, a website where people may make public submissions and using the broad knowledge that NGOs hold about the way villagers feel regarding the use of water resources.
       Among the questions to be discussed are: How do governments balance hydropower, fisheries, irrigation, navigation and flood management in the Lower Mekong Basin? What are the needs of stakeholders and how can we collectively develop an equitable Basin Development Strategy? How can we include poor and marginalised groups in the decision-making process? How will the effects of climate change influence medium- to long-term planning?
       There is bound to be healthy discussion and inevitably some disagreement. That is to be expected. Through these discussions and the process of formulating an integrated development strategy, it will be possible for a broader range of voices to be heard in the debate on sustainable development of the Mekong. A debate that goes beyond the short-term concerns of the economic crisis.